Talking Technicals -- December 18th
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Browsing through the charts this weekend was much different than last weekend. Going into this past week lots of charts were looking pretty good dozens of intriguing setups and potential breakouts. When we got that cooler CPI number on Tuesday morning which led to the futures ripping higher and a big green open, there were breakouts all over the place but then the markets faded and continued to sell off the rest of the week fueled by a hawkish Powell on Wednesday afternoon. 95% of the charts that looked good coming into last week now look much worse. Most of the stocks that had been riding the 8/10d EMA the past couple weeks (setting up for potential breakouts) lost that support, some bounced at the 21/23d and some are still in free fall. The stocks that had found recent support at the 21/23d, lost that support mid week and now are bouncing off the 50d SMA/EMA and/or VWAPs from October/November lows or Q3 earnings with some stocks now pulling back to 100/200d SMA and VWAPs from the summer lows.
I went through 200+ charts the past couple days and very few of them get me excited. Coming into this week I’m 90% invested in my “investment portfolio” and just 10% invested in my “trading portfolio” which goes to show how different things can look and feel depending on whether you’re focused on the fundamentals/valuations or technicals/momentum.
I’m going to go through these charts very quickly, if you have questions on any specific ones feel free to reach out.
CELH - Celsius (I have a position)
CELH is still my largest position, the stock finally ran out of steam the past few days after hitting a new ATH on Tuesday morning. I got worried when we lost the 21/23d EMA but we did find support at some VWAPs and the trendline back to November lows. I did add to my position late in the week and I’d add again if we test the 50d EMA/SMA which are just below.
HALO - Halozyme Therapeutics
HALO has had my attention for a while but I have yet to start a position but that could change this week, fundamentals are strong (margins are insane) and I like the bounce off the 23d EMA with a couple VWAPs just below. This is one of my favorite charts going into the week.
AXSM — Axsome Therapeutics
AXSM is another good looking chart, back above the 10d EMA with a strong DTL setup, this is also one of my favorite setups into tomorrow.
FOUR - Shift4 Payments (I have a position)
FOUR has been outperforming most fintechs over the past few months because they have stronger fundamentals than most of them, small pullback the past few days but nice bounce off the 8d EMA. I think you can own it here with a SL below 10d EMA
XPOF — Xponential Fitness (I have a position)
XPOF ripped after Q3 earnings but now it’s been going sideways for the past few weeks, however it continues to bounce off that support line, I think you can own it here but I’d have a SL below tat VWAP because under that it probably fills the gap from Q3 earnings.
DHT — DHT Holdings
DHT setup looks like AXSM with 4+ candles in the past week setting up to form this DTL, this is a really nice setup into the new week with 50d EMA/SMA just below. This is one of my 5-6 favorite setups into Monday.