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Investment portfolio spreadsheet with all of my core holdings, non-core holdings, swing trades and hedges
Investment portfolio spreadsheet also contains real-time activity (buys, sells, adds, trims) plus real-time notes/commentary/charts throughout the day
My investment portfolio is up +185% in 2024, after being up +134% in 2023 and now up +2,900% since January 2020 when I got back into investing full-time.
Here’s my investment strategy which focuses on high-quality growth stocks… I own 15-20 core holdings (great fundamentals, compelling valuation) plus another 5-10 non-core holdings (good fundamentals, reasonable valuation) plus another 5-10 swing trades (good fundamentals, reasonable valuation, compelling technicals).
As long as the fundamentals remain strong and valuation remains compelling/reasonable, then I’ll add on pullbacks.
I only want to own stocks that have at least 50% upside within the next 1-2 years and at least 100% upside within the next 3-4 years.
My objective is to maximize the upside in good markets and minimize the downside in bad markets. I accomplish this by being very selective with my stock picking and disciplined on valuations while using a variety of hedging strategies to protect my gains in market downturns.
Even if you’re a long-term investor, you should still learn how to read charts and figure out where specific stocks or the indexes might find support or run into resistance. It will make you a better investor and improve your performance. With that said, I’ve been very happy using TrendSpider for the past 4+ years. Today, you can save up to 65% on their annual plans by using my discount link… http://trendspider.cc/luptoncapital
I’m hosting my next webcast with TrendSpider on Monday at 4:30pm EST… https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_TGLExXZPRNGaYtlRl-2rAA#/registration
UBER Q2 earnings report: https://s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/files/doc_earnings/2024/q2/earnings-result/Uber-Q2-24-Earnings-Press-Release.pdf
UBER Q2 earnings webcast: https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/412450873
UBER Q2 earnings presentation: https://s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/files/doc_earnings/2024/q2/supplemental-info/Uber-Q2-24-Earnings-Supplemental-Data.pdf
UBER Q2 earnings webcast prepared remarks: https://s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/files/doc_earnings/2024/q2/transcript/Uber-Q2-24-Prepared-Remarks.pdf
UBER Q2 earnings webcast transcript: https://s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/files/doc_events/2024/Aug/06/uber-q2-24-earnings-call-transcript.pdf
Uber (UBER) — 7% position
Overview
Uber is a global technology and transportation company that provides ride-hailing, food and grocery delivery, courier, and freight services to a wide variety of customers, from individuals to SMBs to large corporations.
Uber has become the dominant player in the transportation space in recent years thanks to the power of its marketplace and technology. No other global player has as broad a platform as Uber and operates in both mobility and delivery.
The size and scale of the Uber platform also provides for lower customer acquisition costs, while Uber's two core products, mobility and delivery, drive new customers to each other. As a result, the usage of two or more products and spending per user continues to accelerate.
Less spending on acquiring new users, higher spending per existing users, maintaining overall cost discipline (including spending on headcount and stock-based compensation), and various other improvements across the board – have all contributed to margin expansion, higher profitability and more free cash flow.
Uber is becoming one of the best free cash flow stories in tech and I expect this theme to continue. The hypergrowth days are in the past but so are the big capex spends and quarterly losses. If Uber can keep revenue growth in the mid-teens while continuing to expand margins, I believe the stock should continue to outperform over the next few years.
With that said, UBER is up +221% from the June 2022 lows which mean UBER has been compounding at an 84% CAGR for the next 24 months which will not be repeated. Over the next 3-4 years (through CY2028), I think UBER can double again, perhaps +150% upside in the best case scenario. However, if we do run into a recession it would not be great for UBER (in the short term) and I’d probably look to trim back my position considering I’ve already done very well with my UBER shares.
While Uber is highly dependent on consumer spending and a healthy economy, it has reached a point where its platform can adjust well to different economic cycles without significant repercussions (perhaps stagnant growth during the recession would be most probable).
In a weaker economy and labor market, the driver supply improves, thus bringing down prices and wait times which makes the service more compelling for riders. As a result, volumes might remain sticky during downturns. I’m still in shock that Uber is currently averaging 30 million rides per day. That number is just bonkers.
At the same time, the company heavily invests in affordability, from its membership program, Uber One, which brings prices down for both mobility and delivery to products like two-wheelers / three-wheelers, and UberX Share, which provides further discounts of up to 50%.
Uber might not be the most exciting growth story but it could be a core-compounder for years to come. It remains one of my core holdings and a top 10 position in my investment portfolio. Even if we did have a recession in the next 6-12 months, I would expect UBER to hold up relatively well and bounce back quickly from any significant drawdowns because they have become a vital part of our everyday lives and one of the most important transportation and mobility companies on the planet.
UBER is now trading at approximately 19x NTM EV/EBITDA and 17x CY2025 EV/EBITDA as well as 21x NTM EV/FCF and 19x CY2025 EV/FCF — all of which seem like reasonable multiples if UBER is growing EBITDA and FCF by ~30% for the next 2-3 years plus stock buybacks.
In full disclosure, I did trim 15% of my UBER position on Friday morning because the stock is up ~25% from the Monday lows when I was adding some shares.
Q2 2024 Analysis
The second quarter was another record quarter for Uber and a testament to the company's ability to deliver profitable growth at scale.
The company generated $10.7 billion in revenue in Q2 2024 (+15.9% YoY), compared to the estimated $10.5 billion. Mobility revenue was $6.1 billion, Delivery revenue was $3.3 billion, and Freight still generated $1.3 billion in revenue. Q2 GAAP EPS was $0.47, a beat by $0.16.
Gross Bookings grew 19% (+21% YoY on a constant-currency basis) to $40 billion, with Mobility Gross Bookings being $20.6 billion (+23% YoY or +27% YoY constant currency) and Delivery Gross Bookings being $18.1 billion (+16% YoY or +17% YoY constant currency). This strong growth was driven by audience expansion (MAPC) of 14% (156 million users) and frequency (trips per MAPC) growth of 6% – both at all-time highs. Trips were up 21% YoY and reached 2.8 billion in the quarter, or about 30 million trips per day.
Uber's significance to the gig economy is highlighted by the $17.9 billion (up 19% YoY, or 23% on a constant currency basis) cumulatively earned by over 7.4 million drivers and couriers globally during the quarter.
This all came with an all-time high profitability and cash flow generation. In Q2 2024, Uber posted $1.57 billion of Adjusted EBITDA (up 71% YoY) vs. $1.512 billion consensus, with Mobility Adjusted EBITDA increased 34% YoY and Delivery Adjusted EBITDA increased 79% YoY. Mobility remains the primary driver of Adjusted EBITDA, generating more than 90% of it in the quarter.
On a GAAP basis, the company generated income from operations of $796 million, which is also a record. Net income in the quarter was $1 billion, but it included a $333 million net unrealized pre-tax gain related to the revaluation of its equity investments.
Uber also generated a record-high free cash flow (FCF) in this quarter of $1.72 billion (+51% YoY), compared to the estimated $1.28 billion. On a trailing twelve-month basis, FCF was $4.8 billion, while Adjusted EBITDA was $5.3 billion, representing a whopping 90% conversion.
The company ended the quarter with $6.3 billion in unrestricted cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, up $529 million sequentially. Equity stakes in other businesses (DiDi, Grab, Aurora, Delivery Hero, Lime, Joby, and Moove) were marked at $6.2 billion, while the long-term debt remained at $9.45 billion. Uber continued to buy back its shares in the second quarter, repurchasing $325 million worth of its stock.
The outlook for Q3 2024 was in line with the Q2 2024 results. The company guides gross bookings to be between $40.25 billion and $41.75 billion, representing an increase of 18-23% YoY on a constant-currency basis. Adjusted EBITDA will continue to grow at a rapid pace and is expected to be between $1.58 billion and $1.68 billion (an increase of 45-54% YoY) versus the $1.623 billion consensus.